Treehouse Almond Market Update – April 10th, 2025

March shipments of California-origin almonds totaled 221.4 million lbs, a year-on-year decline of 6.6%. Season-to-date shipments are now 1,809.7 million lbs, still just 1.6% less than this time last year.

Shipments

Before today’s report, many handlers expected March shipments to fall short of last year’s mark of 237.0 million lbs. Still, export shipments of 169.6 million lbs came within 3% of last year’s export shipments of 174.6 million lbs. Domestic shipments lagged further behind as 51.8 million lbs in March was 17.1% down from last year. Among the top export markets, India stood head and shoulders above with 39.7 million lbs shipped in the previous month, up an astounding 68.1% from March 2024. Other export destinations such as Europe (52.3 million lbs, down 19.1%), the Middle East, (23.9 million lbs, down 23.1%) contributed to overall declines.

Commitments and Sales

The divide between new domestic and export sales was further exasperated in the month of March. While handlers posted excellent export sales of 183.3 million lbs (39.6%), new domestic sales continued to crash with just 34.2 million lbs, down 32.0%. These numbers continue to solidify the theory that domestic almond consumption is set to decline in the 2024 season. With no clear explanation for the domestic setbacks, the industry ought to take note of these trends as overall domestic commitments of 204.5 million lbs today are down 50 million lbs from March 2024 further denoting the malaise in domestic almond trading. Meanwhile, reports of dwindling local inventories abroad could be an indicator for continued sales for prompt shipment in the weeks and months ahead. The end-March industry sold position in terms of just the 2024 crop has now reached 90.1%. This figure appears to be well in-line with the industry’s sales pace in recent years.

Crop & Receipts

Receipts of the 2024 crop accelerated slightly in March with 19.1 million lbs added to the current crop. The 2024 crop has now eclipsed 2.7 billion lbs which is generally aligned with broader industry expectations. With the 2024 crop essentially in the barn, anticipation builds towards the speculation of the new crop. Since bloom, not much could be said about the 2025 crop. As nut set appears to be on a healthy pace, buyers and sellers will look closely at the inbound estimates of crop and acreage in the coming weeks.

Market & Summary

It seems difficult to describe the level of recent uncertainty and volatility felt in global markets. With the on-again, off-again threats of tariffs mixed with steady increases to almond pricing, it seems challenging to believe that the market couldn’t slow down. Still, despite whatever external political or economical noise that has been added from these policies, California remains the preeminent supplier of almonds around the world. As US tariffs on China increase, Australian suppliers can exercise free trade arrangements to grow their market share in the region. These shifts would only enable California to engage more deeply in key destinations such as India, Europe and the Middle East. Ultimately, all roads will continue to lead to market fundamentals of supply and demand. With just 4 months to go, handlers can afford to ship below last year’s pace and still arrive at a manageable carryout below 550 million lbs. With an exceptional shipment report in April of 2024, sellers should expect that next month’s report will again show shipments below the previous year. Key points of demand from here appear to lie in a few key places. How much inshell inventory is available to meet India’s need? Can the exceptional pace of Middle Eastern shipments continue? Can domestic demand rally at the end of the crop year? No matter the answer to these questions buyers should expect sellers to remain aggressive on pricing with sellable inventories continuing to dwindle into the Spring.