Treehouse Almond Market Update August 12, 2023

Just like that crop year 2022 has flown right pass us all. As we all sit and wait for harvest, we must look at one last shipment report to close out the year. July shipments of 186.6 million lbs slightly edged out last year July shipments of 169.4 million lbs up 10%. 186 mm pounds of shipments was short of what the industry was hoping for but worth noting it is the second largest shipments ever recorded for July. Edging out July 2019 of 180.13mm pounds, but below the record July of 229.39mm pounds in July 2020. Ending the year with shipments down 2.6%, California will carry-in an excess of 780 million lbs which just 5 months ago seemed was on pace to be sub 700 million lbs.

Exports contributed its second largest July 130.14 million lbs, up 15.9% from previous July and finished the season almost flat down 1.1% YTD. Domestic continues its lack lustering performance and reported shipments of 56.5 million lbs, down 1.1% over last month and closed out the year down 6.32%.

Some Callouts:

1. India woke up and shipped 24.26 million lbs for the month of July, this is up 16% from the 13.1 million lbs shipped last July. The continued fear of a late harvest pushed demand for current crop inshell in order to accommodate Diwali festival. Still closing out the year down 6.6%.
2. China continues its downward importing of California Almonds from earlier this year. Total China shipments for July were 4.3 million pounds compared to 8 million last month down 46%. Still up for the year 13%.
3. Western Europe brought in 48 million pounds vs 40 million last July. The call out being Europe leveraging under sold California Handler position with under market price levels. Western Europe is down YTD 10%. With a large Spanish crop moving offers impacting price vs California Almonds.
4. Middle East another Down month for a market that a great up side. A third consecutive month with down shipments. July showed Middle east shipments at 12.6 mm pounds compared to 15.4mm pounds down 19%. The Middle East did close out the year up 9%. High inventory levels from heavy shipments earlier in the year has pumped the breaks in bringing in new tonnage.

Current crop:   California commitments for the month of July were 108.6 million pounds vs 63.3 million pound, an increase of 72%. Setting a commitment record for back-to-back months. We now show a total uncommitted inventory 418 million lbs which is an improvement of 70.5 million lbs less (14% less) this time last year.

New crop:   California new crop commitments of 82 million lbs in July bring the commitments of new crop to 204 million lbs. Using the Objective Estimate of 2.6 billion puts 2023 crop sold percentage at 7.8%. Still well behind where California needs to be. 

As July comes to an end and we wrap up our 2022 season there are two things that California must navigate through and that is handlers moving product at current levels and harvest as it is now at least 10 days behind last year.