Treehouse Almond Market Update – December 17th, 2024

California origin shipments in November surpassed all expectations with a record-setting mark of 271.4 million lbs, up 13.9% from last November’s shipments of 238.3 million lbs. This brings season-to-date shipments for California up to 911.7 million lbs through November, essentially flat in comparison to last year (915.4 million lbs).

Shipments

Export markets carried the brunt of shipment growth with a total of 217 million lbs, which is 22% above last November’s export shipments of 191 million lbs. Meanwhile, domestic shipments for the month were lackluster, down 9.8% at just 54.4 million lbs. Export shipments were unusually distributed among lesser mentioned markets as summarized below:

• Shipments to Western Europe, led by the Netherlands (+15.6 million lbs), are up 33 million lbs, or 71%, compared to November 2023.
• Middle East shipments continue their strong trends despite a slight decline in UAE shipments (-4.6%). Moroccan shipments of 9.1 million lbs are up 140%, while Turkish shipments of 13.6 million lbs are up 72.6% compared to last year.
• Meanwhile, shipments to India were staggeringly down 17.8 million lbs, or 46.7%, from November last year. This may point to India’s need to cover with season-to-date shipments down 23.5%.

Still, despite exceptional shipments to Europe in November, season-to-date shipments are relatively flat (-0.45%), showing no substantial growth in the region across the season. Elsewhere, the Middle East continues to ship well beyond last year’s pace (up 41 million lbs or 38%), raising questions as to the sustainability of the regional demand going into the start of 2025.

Commitments and Sales

While shipments in November give cause for excitement, commitments and sales were more sobering as the industry continues to grapple with the recent trends of increased pricing. New export sales of 152.5 million lbs were just 1.5% higher than last year, while domestic sales of 57 million lbs in November were down 1.9% from last November. These numbers are sobering, as sales at prices today are not keeping pace with shipments of commitments that were booked in the past several months at lower price levels. Additionally, the trend of total commitments continues to signal that the industry is behind pace in selling, as total commitments today of 611.8 million lbs remain 5.5% short of last year’s mark. Within this, we note that it is domestic commitments that are lagging (-19.2%) as opposed to export commitments (+4.25). These trends may reveal who is in a position to buy in the months leading up to bloom.

Crop & Receipts

Receipt figures continue to headline the interest of buyers and sellers as the theory of a shortfall crop continues to dwindle as November receipts of 496.9 million lbs bring total receipts of the 2024 crop up to 2.342 billion lbs. This marks the 2nd highest total receipts at the end of November on record (behind the 2020 crop of 3.1 billion lbs). Widespread reports of hullers finishing production at near-record pace indicates that the receipts of the 2024 crop may see a significant slowdown in the coming months. We note that the decline of November receipts from October is 39% compared to more traditional spreads of 25% in the last four years. Still, when we examine the past 5 years, we note that the lowest cumulative receipts from December forward were in the 2022 crop year with just 421 million lbs. If we were to apply this figure to current 2024 receipts, this would project the total 2024 crop at 2.76 billion lbs. With these ideas noted, the industry is likely to place significant importance on December receipts to be revealed in the next industry position report.

Market & Summary

The news from today’s report leaves the industry in an interesting bind going into the end of the calendar year. While record-setting shipments in November bring total crop year shipments back to last year’s pace, it isn’t clear if these shipments are driven from recent sales at peak prices or from contracts booked in the late summer/early fall at prices 30-40 cents per lb lower than today. The current rate of receipts still spells uncertainty for how long or short the 2024 crop will be compared to previous estimates. However, even if the crop were to reach 2.8 billion lbs, the current pace of shipments still allows for a sub-600 million lb carryout at the end of the 2024 season, suggesting that prices don’t immediately need to come down if sales can keep apace. While sellers may point to shipments as evidence to move pricing up, buyers may be more resigned with the start of the 2025 crop bloom just 8 weeks away.