Treehouse Almond Market Update – February 12th, 2025

California handlers shipped 228.6 million lbs in January, down 3.1% from last year’s record setting mark of 235.9 million lbs. Season-to-date shipments for the industry have reached 1,373 million lbs, down just 0.5% down from the end of January 2024.

Shipments

While a 3% decline of year-on-year shipments may not seem like a bullish point, the shipments of 228.6 million lbs outperformed the expectation of sellers who forecasted today’s shipment report to be 210 million lbs. Export shipments of 167 million lbs were off 3.5% from last year’s total of 173 million lbs. Domestic shipments held steady at 61.7 million lbs down just 1.9% from last January. Regionally, shipments of 38.8 million lbs (~1,200 containers) to India was in line with expectation as buyers held off from additional coverage anticipating strong shipments. As expected, shipments to the Middle East slowed to 22.7 million lbs vs 27.6 million as the region prepares for upcoming Ramadan (Feb 28th). Shipments to Europe were down slightly (-6.2%) with 57.5 million lbs. While the high mark of January 2024 was difficult to match, the industry maintains solid footing with cumulative shipments comparative to this time last year.

Commitments and Sales

Total new sales of 239 million lbs comes as a surprise, surpassing last year’s new sales mark of 235.9. While export sales of 148.5 million lbs disappointed (down 40.1 million lbs or 21.3%), domestic sales of 90.5 million lbs were up a staggering 91.3% from January 2024. Total commitments at the end of January of 571.6 million lbs are 65.8 million lbs (10.3%) less than the end of January last year. Notably, new shipments in January represented 42% of total commitments at the end of December, pointing to a high proportion of sales for prompt shipment in the last 30 days, mirroring the trend seen over the past 5 months. This leaves the industry sold position as a percentage of total supply (crop + carry-in) at 61.2%, the lowest level since the 2021 season.

Crop & Receipts

Updated crop receipts remained at the forefront of the industry’s mind ahead of today’s report, and the 2024 crop has now reached 2.66 billion lbs for the season. With a steep decline in receipts between December and January (down 62%), the industry can settle into the reality that the 2.8 billion lb Objective Estimate is beyond reach. Tracking average receipts February-forward for the past 5 years, a 2.74 gross crop would be topside of possibilities.

With the 2024 crop nearly in hand, the industry will now focus its attention towards the new crop potential. With the 2025 crop bloom dawning, concerns surrounding honeybees, potentially inclement weather, continued pull outs and aging of trees will all add to market speculations of supply going forward. While the honeybee shortage is continually under investigation by the USDA and other industry groups, we should be reminded that there are a culmination of factors (bees, weather, crop inputs, pest pressure etc) that ultimately impact final crop sizes.

Market & Summary

Today’s news appears to lean towards firming conditions. Strong shipments, sales and declining receipts indicate that the industry remains in balance with a sub-600 million lb carryout well within reach. While export sales serve as the biggest disappointment from today, several factors point to sustained demand available in the months to come. India is still down 17.4% in season-to-date shipments, the Middle East will enter Ramadan at the end of the month with demand apparent in the months to follow, and domestic buyers continue to adhere to a near term strategy for coverage. While firmer pricing may be warranted, continuation of strong fundamentals (sales/shipments) will hedge sellers against upside 2025 crop size potential. While supply appears in balance today, a 2025 crop of 2.75 billion lbs combined with a carryout of 550 million lbs would frame total supply in 2025 at 3.3 billion lbs, the highest since the 2022 season. Perhaps the path forward lies somewhere in the middle, with firm conditions abiding in the weeks to come as the industry braces for another year of uncertain blooming conditions.