Treehouse Almond Market Update – January 9th, 2025

The new year begins with a solid report of 233.1 million lbs shipped in December, up 1.6% year-over-year. Season-to-date shipments of 1,144.8 million lbs are now identical to last year through the first five months of the crop season.

Shipments

Export shipments of 177 million lbs are 2.5% higher than 172.7 million lbs shipped in December 2023. Domestic shipments fell just short of last year with 56.1 million lbs shipped (1.1% down from 56.7 million lbs shipped last December). Shipments to India of 34.6 million lbs were down 10% from 38.55 million lbs of shipments last December. This notably brings year-to-date shipments to India to 157.1 million lbs, 20.9% lower than this time last year. European shipments of 64.3 million lbs are 3.3% higher than last year, signaling steady demand for the region. Meanwhile, the Middle East continues to surpass last year’s shipments with another 26.68 million lbs delivered last month (+13%), driving season-to-date shipments for the region up to 174.7 million lbs (33.8% higher than this point last year).

Commitments and Sales

As shipments continue to track last year’s pace, commitments and sales are beginning to fall behind last year’s marks. Total new sales of 182.5 million lbs are 16.81% lower than 219.4 million lbs of new sales in December 2023. These figures are highlighted by export sales of 124.1 million lbs (-19.73% vs. Dec 2023) and domestic sales of 58.4 million lbs (-9.92% vs. Dec 2023). The timing of holidays and a later December position report may be cited as factors for the lower December sales figures. Still, total commitments of 561.2 million lbs are 11.96% down from 637.4 million lbs of total commitments for the industry through December 2023. Furthermore, the industry’s sold position as a % of total supply (crop + carry-in) is now just 52.5%—tied for the lowest sales position through December since the 2015 crop season. These figures point to a weariness of both buyers and sellers to put significant tonnage on the books.

Crop & Receipts

A figure of high interest in this report is new crop receipts in December of just 233.6 million lbs (down 35.3% from December 2023 receipts). Cumulative receipts of the 2024 crop are now 2,576 million lbs through December. When observing past crop seasons, the pattern of receipts in the 2022 crop season seems to best resemble the pattern of receipts most closely in the 2024 crop season. If we apply total post- December receipts in the 2022 season to the current total receipts of the 2024 crop, we will arrive at a total 2024 crop size of 2.77 billion lbs. This gives no reason to toss out the potential of a 2.8 billion lb total as forecasted in the Objective Estimate.

Market & Summary

With a new year ahead, the California market seems to have split perspectives in the months to come. On the one hand, consistently strong shipments support the notion that the market is well in balance with a manageable carryout in the forecast. On the other hand, lackluster sales in consecutive months could sow pressure for sellers to increase bookings at the risk of losing the momentum of shipments built over the last three months. Sellers perceive that the market could continue to strengthen and are hesitant to offer beyond the near term. Elsewhere, buyers may speculate that slower sales ahead of an unknown bloom market could set up a bearish environment in the spring and summer. In short, both sides have reason to reserve sales for the spring for opposing reasons, and shipments in the first quarter of 2025 may be at risk of a decline in comparison to the previous year.

Speaking of bloom, the industry is just 4-6 weeks away from the start of the 2025 crop bloom. While there can be no definitive conclusion drawn about a crop size from a bloom alone, it does bear a traditionally significant impact on the long-term outlook of supply among buyers and sellers. As we approach this bloom time, it is important to remember the significance that crop sizes play in the overall movement of pricing. While common industry belief was once that “low prices cure low prices,” this was not the case in the 2022 crop season. Despite nearly 2 consecutive years of standard 5%’s priced below $2.00/lb, the market was not able to pull itself up until the correction of supply took place through the significantly reduced 2023 crop of 2.45 billion lbs. Therefore, the factors of supply (bearing acres, yield, inedibles) are to be closely observed as the market rolls on into 2025.