Treehouse Almond Market Update – March 11th, 2025

February shipments of California-origin almonds totaled 214.9 million lbs, a 2.8% decline from 221.1 million lbs shipped in February 2024. California handlers have now shipped 1,588.4 million lbs through the month of February. This leaves 2024 crop cumulative shipments just -0.8% behind last year season-to-date shipments.

Shipments

Total shipments of 214.9 million lbs marks another solid performance despite the hopes from sellers that perhaps shipments would have surpassed last year’s mark. Shipment trends were generally split between domestic (-4.4% at 56.2 million lbs) and export markets (-2.2% at 158.8 million lbs). Within the export markets, there are a few callouts to consider. Shipments to Europe of 60.7 million lbs were less than 1% off from February of 2024. A ~5% strengthening of the Euro in the last 30 days helped to offset recent price increases, supporting continued European demand.

After several strong months of shipments, the Middle East saw a 9.64% decline in February with 24.47 million lbs to the region. Reports of strong local inventories amidst the start of Ramadan can be largely attributed to the slowdown of shipments in the past 30 days.

Shipments of 25.6 million lbs to India were 5.5% less than last year’s shipments of 27.1 million lbs. Pressure to keep up with season-to-date shipments continues to build as India continues to find itself 16.3% behind its annual pace of shipments.

Commitments and Sales

New sales and commitments behaved much differently than shipments during the month in February. New sales of 220.8 million lbs are 3% higher than last February with a much broader split between export and domestic markets. Export sales in February of 191.4 million lbs were solidly up 26.2% from 151.7 million lbs in February 2024. In contrast, domestic sales of just 29.4 million lbs were noticeably 53.3% down from 62.9 million lbs sold last year.

This draws serious questions about whether domestic buyers are committing to purchases post bloom, or if the domestic market is set up for a broader reduction in the 2024 season. Domestic commitments of just 222.1 million lbs are the lowest end- February mark in recent history, and are 30% lower than the 5-year average of 317.3 million lbs.

The end-February sold position as a percentage of marketable crop has now reached 81.0% if we presume a 2024 crop of 2.7 billion lbs. This is tracking about 5% behind the 5-year average pace of sales for the industry at the end of February (86.7%).

Crop & Receipts

New crop receipts in February fell off the cliff as just 17.4 million new lbs were added to the 2024 crop. Cumulative receipts have now reached 2.682 billion lbs with a likely path to a total crop in the neighborhood of 2.7 billion lbs.

As for the new crop, the 2025 bloom was broadly categorized as less than exceptional. Inconsistent blooms, lack of available bees, and poor new bud growth headlined the struggles seen by growers in the recent weeks. While weather has been generally cooperative, the general sentiment remains uncertain around just how large the 2025 crop can be. With initial estimates of bearing acreage and crop production due in April, not much can be said about forward-looking supply for the next 30 days.

Market & Summary

Another month of solid sales and shipments continues to support the notion that supply and demand in the California market remain in balance. With no clear indication that a booming 2025 crop is on the way, buyers may struggle to justify any slowdowns in the market. In the last few weeks, standard 5% prices have moved from the mid $2.60s/lb up above $2.80/lb as sellers report dwindling sellable inventories for the final 5 months of the season. An earlier than usual Diwali in 2025 continues to fuel speculation for late-season demand for India which will not be able to satisfy its needs solely out of new crop.

While there are factors supporting a bullish position, sellers should heed caution around questionable domestic demand, the effects of new tariff proposals, and the need to continue delivering consistent sales and shipments to maintain a strong position of supply heading into the 2025 crop season.