Treehouse Almond Market Update – November 12th, 2024

California handlers shipped 258.4 million lbs in October, up 4.5% compared to shipments of 247.4 million lbs in October last year. Despite logistical struggles with port shipments, the industry performed strongly, and today’s report marks the third largest October shipment totals on record. With one quarter of the 2024 crop year in the books, cumulative shipments are 640.3 million lbs, down 5.4% from this point last year.

Shipments

Shipments to export markets of 191.0 million lbs were essentially flat compared to last year’s mark of 190.3 million lbs. Conversely, domestic shipments were convincingly strong at 67.4 million lbs (up 10.4 million lbs or 18% from last year). The combination of steady export shipments along with growing domestic shipments in October indicate confidence in today’s pricing which is upwards of $1 per lb higher than October 2023. Below are a few regional callouts to consider:

• Turkey (+38.8%) and the UAE (+54.8%) deliver a second straight month of outstanding shipments to drive Middle Eastern shipments up to 57.2 million lbs (+46.3% compared to 39.1 million lbs last October)
• Total shipments to Europe fell just 1.5 million lbs short (-3.5%) of last year’s total of 43.7 million lbs indicating decent demand in the region.
• Shipments to India were overwhelmingly down with just 29.4 million lbs compared to 48.1 million lbs last October (-38.9%)

Commitments and Sales

End-October commitments of 673.7 million lbs are essentially flat compared to 677.5 million lbs last year. This calculates total new sales in October at 264.7 million lbs, up 5.6% from last October’s sales of 250.7 million lbs. Both domestic sales of 71.2 million lbs and export sales of 193.5 million lbs outperformed last year’s sales in October by 3.9% and 6.2% respectively. These figures are remarkable when considering the notable increase of today’s pricing in comparison to October 2023. This brings the industry’s end-October sold and shipped position to 47.9% of expected crop (2.8 billion lbs based on the USDA’s Objective Estimate) and 41.7% of total supply (crop + carry-in). We still note that total export commitments are 52.8 million lbs ahead (+13%) of last year’s pace of 405.7 million lbs. Meanwhile total domestic commitments through October continue to lag last year’s pace by 56.6 million lbs or 20.8%.

Crop & Receipts

Receipt figures are peculiarly high with a record-setting 810.3 million lbs received in October. This brings crop-year-to-date receipts up to 1.845 billion lbs, an all-time-high for the end of October. Some may be quick to interpret these numbers as clear evidence that the 2024 crop will outperform expectations, but several anomalies remain outstanding to the 2024 crop season. The most outstanding aberration to this season is the news that several hullers in the southern valley of all sizes will be finished hulling by Thanksgiving; for some this marks the earliest finish date in over 10 years. Several huller managers cite extremely dry field deliveries and lower yields as the contributing factors for the shorter-than-usual hulling season. Visibility is less clear on when central and northern valley hullers finish running stockpiles which will draw keen attention to next month’s receipts. With these factors considered, despite the very strong receipts coming as a surprise to the industry, it is still too early to make conclusive claims about the 2024 crop size.

Market & Summary

264 million lbs of new sales bolsters confidence that pricing, even at 5 year highs, is being supported and we can expect November to be another strong shipping month. With a reported lighter Spanish crop, European buyers will focus on California to cover tangible holiday and Q1 needs in the coming weeks. Reports from India have signaled a conclusion of another successful Diwali festival, local inventories are drastically low and the need to replenish stocks makes for a firm Nonpareil market in the near term. In the domestic market, buyers have been slow to cover at higher price levels hoping
sales/shipments would signal an opportunity for price adjustment, however, today’s report should bolster confidence for further Q1 & Q2 coverage.

While these points may signal a bullish end to the 2024 calendar year, several watchouts remain that could counter the strengthening market. Although there is growing support that the 2.8 billion lb Objective Crop Estimate may be overstated, today’s crop receipts do not suggest that California can afford a slowdown in momentum. In addition, on November 20th, the 2024 Standing Acreage Final Estimate will be released and early 2025 total supply calculations will begin capitulation. Nevertheless, the short-term outlook from today supports the notions that today’s levels are agreeable to buyers and may continue to rise in response to incoming demand domestically and abroad.