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The time has come to pay out your office pool winner. The 2023 Objective crop estimate has been published with a forecast of 2.60 Billion meat pounds based on 1.38mm bearing acres. This translate to an average of 1,880 yielded pound per acre. The 2.60 billion meat pounds is 4% higher than May’s Subjective estimate of 2.50 billion pounds and 1% higher of crop year 2022 2.57 billion meat pounds.
After last 5 months day to day weather and bloom conditions experienced by our professionals, Treehouse can point out are some numbers for the coming year.
Nut Set: The 2023 average nut set per tree is forecasted to be 3,953 which is down 3% compared to crop year 2022 of 4,082. Sampling was done in 912 orchards throughout the sate with 1,824 trees being surveyed.
- Nonpareil: Nonpareil which represent 42% of total California almond production is forecasted to come in at 1.10 billion meat pounds with a 10% growth vs. last year 1 billion meat pounds. Average Nonpareil nut set is up 1% 4,004 compared to last year set of 3,966. Kernel weight for the Nonpareil was up 9% 1.69 grams vs last year 1.55 grams.
- All Varieties: Including the Nonpareil all varieties sampled say a kernel weight growth of 14% 1.67 grams vs. 1.47 grams last year.
- With exception to the Nonpareil all other varieties say a decrease in nut set, but an increase in Kernel weight.
- Quality: All varieties across the state that were sampled saw flat growth to insect damage while doubles look to be heavier in certain areas by variety especially in the Monterey, Butte, and Carmel.
What is next for the industry? While many of us try to read deep into the report and make the most sense on how to walk forward there is crop to sell and ship. We have a larger crop forecasted coming mixed with a low June position report, and our carry over keeps growing. I have attached our updated standard Supply and Demand analysis showing a forecasted +800mm pound carry in. In looking over the chart we could potentially be looking at 3.2-3.4 billion pound total saleable crop following a flat July shipment.
The main focus and discussion that will be on everyone’s radar is harvest. All growers and processor should be conveying the same message HARVEST IS LATE. Here in the south we have spoken to many growers and we are looking at 7-12 days behind last year. A Good indication for harvest is hull split. Speaking to a handful of growers and reps today there is little hull spilt activity due to the cooler temps we have seen. We are set to see temps in the southern valley pass 108 degrees starting tomorrow and into next week. This will help speed the split, but still cause the industry to be behind. We could be looking at second half august before almonds reach the huller making first new crop shipment late first half September.
Only Mother Nature knows when this will be and all we can do is wait.
As always The Treehouse Commercial Sales team is here ready to help with any demand or inquiry you may have!